“EU’s position on China was already gradually shifting before the Russian invasion, in becoming more skeptical on economic cooperation, concerned about China’s domestic authoritarian turn as well as China’s growing international ambitions and their manifestations in the EU.”
“Central and Eastern Europe’s attention is currently fixed on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the perception of China has been shifting as well. If China is regarded as supporting Russia, Beijing risks falling into the category of an explicit threat alongside Moscow.”
“In Europe, the narrative is becoming: This is what you get if you deal nicely with authoritarian regimes. It’s becoming not only about Russia; it’s also about China.”
“The China and Russia-skeptic Czech government, which will preside over the EU in the second half of this year, is inclined to consider China as on a par with Russia – in other words, it sees China as another hostile, unpredictable, authoritarian regime.”
“Cross-Strait relations between China and Taiwan were one of the most volatile hotspots of global tensions. Beijing’s increasingly hostile rhetoric and military posturing toward Taipei, including repeated violations of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, exacerbated the tensions, which became one of the defining points of the power competition between the US and China.”
“There is already a lot of discussion about freezing funding for countries that are not following rule of law principles, with Hungary a target. This can of course make Hungary closer to China as an alternative source of finance.”
“We have witnessed a sweeping change from previously hesitant position of European institutions and governments to demonstrating moral, financial and security support of Ukraine. The new-found unity and unwillingness of their allies to block decision-making at the EU level may have come as a surprise for both Moscow and Beijing and would force them to re-assess assumptions on EU foreign and security policy in the future.”
“[For] the countries on Ukraine’s border, this is not any distant crisis. It is something that we’re already seeing ramifications of, with tens of thousands of refugees fleeing Ukraine to Slovakia, Poland, Romania, and Hungary.”
“The [Ukraine] crisis may speed up the discussions on qualified majority voting so that [the EU] would be much more flexible and make decisions much faster in the future. And, of course, it’s probably going to speed up discussion about various measures to counter strategic corruption and corrosive capital within the EU, which have a detrimental effect on decision-making processes, precisely in these kinds of crises.”
“On all of these points and more, many central and eastern European leaders and citizens will feel compelled to gloat about their warnings [about Russia] that fell on deaf ears for so many years. In many respects, this is justified.”
“In the context of the Russian goals in Ukraine and ongoing developments on the ground, any future scenarios must necessarily take into account not only the military aspects of the current crisis and the economic sustainability of the military campaign, but also the position of the international environment as well as President Putin’s personal ambitions vis-a-vis Ukraine and the position of Russia in the world.”
“Given the promotion of Taiwan as a democracy standing in contrast to China’s authoritarian model; a defender of minorities in contrast to China’s policies; many pro-Taiwan arguments are in direct opposition to Beijing,”