As European leaders return to Beijing seeking an economic reset, questions arise over China’s deepening ties with Moscow — and what that means for the EU. Some analysts and domestic critics of President Trump accuse him of trying to reach a grand bargain with both Russia and China, and effectively leaving Europe at the mercy of what some analysts refer to as the DragonBear. Adam Jasser speaks with Ivana Karásková, a leading European expert on China from the Prague-based Association for International Affairs, about Beijing’s strategy, the so-called DragonBear alignment, and whether Europe is underestimating the threat.
Geopolitical analysis offers a nuanced look at how the EU and particular states navigate great-power competition in an increasingly polarized world. Karásková explains the uneven economic outcomes of China’s “16+1” initiative. While Hungary and Serbia secured significant investments and Turkey and Poland saw smaller gains, many other participating countries experienced limited tangible benefits. This imbalance, combined with changing geopolitical realities, has led several Central and Eastern European states to return to a more cautious stance toward Beijing. Although China invested politically in the region, economic engagement often fell short of expectations. It seems that European leaders are still hoping to separate the issue of trade imbalances and what they see as unfair Chinese competition from China’s growing geopolitical alliance with Russia.
Watch the full interview with Ivana Karásková at TVP World.
“Since the invasion of Ukraine, discussions around the emerging Sino-Russian bloc have become more frequent. Some now see the two powers as united in their quest to remodel and weaken the Western-led ‘rules-based international order’.”
Matej Šimalčík, 9dashline“In Europe, there are currently only limited instructions that allow researchers to collaborate safely with their Chinese counterparts, without the risk of relationships being abused for political purposes or for forced technology transfers.”
Matej Šimalčík, Euractiv“Only limited guidelines currently exist in Europe that would allow researchers to safely engage with Chinese colleagues without running the risk of the links being abused for political goals or forced technology transfers.”
Matej Šimalčík, Euractiv“Retaliation from China is possible but it’s unclear what that would actually entail, and whether Beijing, which already has problematic relations with the EU over its economic coercion of Lithuania, is likely to want to escalate that further.”
Ivana Karásková, Al Jazeera“In line with the EU’s strategy, the Czech Republic’s Indo-Pacific approach will strive to be open and inclusive, including towards cooperation with China, especially on the issue of climate change. However, China will be the elephant in the room in many of the discussions, including on the issue of strengthening the resilience of global supply chains in cooperation with ‘like-minded partners’.”
Filip Šebok, 9dashline“Taiwan has been very successful in building ties with the Czech policymakers and different stakeholders but also building up a positive image among the Czech general population.”
Filip Šebok, Deutsche Welle“The EU must recognise that its security is inseparably linked to its ability to project its strength and decisiveness in offering its Eastern European neighbours a clear membership perspective and thus unequivocally signal to Russia its readiness to defend its preferred international order in Europe, i.e. one based on values of freedom and democracy.”
Pavel Havlíček, Euractiv“It [the Global Security Initiative] sends an important signal to developing countries as it puts emphasis on shared stage of development or historical experience with colonialism, and stressing principles of sovereignty and non-interference.”
Ivana Karásková, Deutsche Welle“Beijing’s decision to join Russia in blaming Nato’s expansion for the invasion of Ukraine is alienating many countries that fear they could be attacked next. This follows regional disillusionment that Beijing was using divide-and-conquer tactics, rather than win-win economic benefits, in its 17+1 leadership.”
Ivana Karásková, South China Morning Post“The Russian invasion of Ukraine fundamentally challenged the Western approach toward international relations, security, as well as the West’s thinking on relations with Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe. The crisis means a particular blow to the EU’s Eastern Partnership policy that was launched in 2009 during the Czech EU presidency.”
Pavel Havlíček, Visegrad Insight“The costs of the war are enormous for the Russian regime and society and might potentially lead to even a higher price to pay in the future.”
Pavel Havlíček, Visegrad Insight